H1N1 update du jour

[feuervogel]

Yesterday morning were reported 642 cases in 41 states and 2 deaths. The second death was in a woman with chronic underlying health conditions, which made her more vulnerable. Today we're up to 896 cases in 41 states. It's everywhere, pretty much. (200 cases in Illinois? Huh.)

CDC has nifty maps of the cases now.

Revere wonders what so far, so good means in this context. The idea this is "mild" flu virus is so far true, but mild is a relative term, as we have pointed out here. And "so far" is another important qualifier. This virus is spreading relatively quickly, but it isn't everywhere and not much time has passed. He reminds us that we should pay attention to the upcoming flu season in the southern hemisphere, because it might give us a clue for what to expect this fall. Or not.

Comments

[tsaiko.livejournal.com]

Although they don't show it in that much detail on the map, my guess is the sudden 200 cases in Illinois are probably clustered in the Chicago area which has a large population in close quarters.

[feuervogel]

It looks like CDC has incomplete (yesterday's?) data, as IL DPH is reporting 258 confirmed cases of H1N1. 122 in Chicago and another 58 in Cook County.

[faithful-summer.livejournal.com]

Alaska doesn't count.

[beth_leonard]

Thanks for the continued updates and links. I found the part at the end of the so far so good link to be ... enlightening? terrifying?

But such case-fatality rates, reported one week after a case is confirmed, can underestimate actual mortality rates, because they can overlook patients who remain ill and subsequently die. This was demonstrated in 2003, when the reported case-fatality rate of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Asia was initially put at a few per cent — only to be found to be closer to 20% in studies that followed up cases. (Declan Butler, Nature)

--Beth